If Smokey was ever shown a replay of this fight and asked to point out what led to his victory, he'd pick out two instances. The first instance would be the point where Cat charged him with the flamethrower, which essentially threw away his opponent's range advantage. The second and currently much more relevant mistake was Cat pulling back his fist. Now this requires a bit of explanation.
First of all, had Cat shot out a volley of chains like he had before, Smokey would have had no chance to dodge any more than one of them. He had no fire dust to launch him away, and he had no ice dust conveniently located to make a smoke screen. He didn't even have a round of ammunition to try and deflect them. Even with Smokey's feint, Cat would have easily secured victory with a flurry of blows. Even if Cat had reduced the flurry and attempted to strike him with the hammer at the same time, Smokey would have been forced to defend against the hammer, which would have left him exposed to the chains. But Cat did neither of these things. Cat intended to finish the fight with one strike. That was part of his mistake.
The second part of the mistake was very simple: Cat had telegraphed his attack. Cat may not have realized it himself, but Smokey had one big advantage over Cat going into this fight that can't be measured in stats, and that was experience. No, not combat experience, or weapons experience, or even general huntsman experience. Smokey's experience came in the form of petty brawls and street fights. They say defeat is the best teacher, and Smokey had suffered many a defeat. But he did win some, and in those fights, his opponents made the same mistake Cat was making now: they did something to tip Smokey off of their next move. By pulling back his fist to wind-up for his strike, Cat had all but told Smokey exactly what he was planning.
And, no matter how powerful, no matter how fast, no matter how well-aimed, if something was telegraphed, it could be dodged.
Cat would probably watch the event in slow motion. As he let his fist fly, Smokey's gun would already have moved into position to block the attack and Smokey's body would be leaning to the left. As the spike and chain shot out, and it did shoot out at high speed, the spike would indeed come into contact with Smokey. However, it would first be deflected by Matchstick, which itself was sent flying into the air from the impact. The result was knocking the spike off-course just enough to only land a glancing blow.
Smokey's aura was still in the yellow.
And now, Smokey was charging to Cat's exposed left side, the billowing ash cloud of aura no longer on his foot but on his right fist. And that right fist was careening in straight for Cat's ribs.
Combat log:
Aura: 17% (Glancing Blow, 1/2 damage)
Semblance: 10 SECONDS REMAINING AT START OF NEXT TURN
Matchstick: 0/7 Rounds.
Dust: 0 Fire Dust, 0 Ice Dust
Action: Aura-enhanced right hook to Cat's left side(11%)